Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
